Tom Reynolds Large Cents - Thanks for the Memories!

Well, the auction of the Tom Reynolds large cents is now in the books. It was a memorable sale that falls just short of the legendary category.
There were a lot of memorable coins in the sale. The venue for the auction was the Intercontinental Hotel in West L.A., which proved to be a very comfortable and inviting place for a coin sale. The pre-sale publicity was well handled, and the cataloging & photography of the auction lots was masterfully done.
All of this positive energy was countered by a sagging coin market, and the stock market turmoil of the past month. The net result was a coin sale in which a large number of important early large cents traded hands without great fanfare, and without many new price records.
My impressions from the Reynolds auction are shared below (in random order):

There were no million dollar coins in this sale (and, none were expected). Five lots did pierce the $100K mark [a 1793 Chain Cent (LOT-1), a choice 1793 S9 Wreath Cent in PCGS MS65BN (LOT-3), another 1793 Wreath S-10 in PCGS MS64BN (LOT-5), a stunning 1798 Draped Bust Cent with Rev. of 1795 (S155) in unsurpassed PCGS MS65BN (LOT-141), and a remarkable 1809 Classic Head Cent (LOT-311)].

By my count, 131 of the 332 numismatic lots in the Reynolds sale brought a hammer price lower than the pre-sale estimate. There are a number of possible explanations for this occurrence, but the simplest (and most defensible) is that the estimates were formulated at an earlier time, when the coin market was in better health. Obviously, a year-long decline in commodity prices, and the poor performance turned in by the U.S. equities market in Jan. 2016 had an impact on the confidence of rare coin buyers.

Some dates and some series fared better than others. The prices realized by 1793 cents were more-or-less in line with my expectations. 1794 cents did rather well, as the collector base for this date is quite strong, and this sale offered a unique opportunity to bid for condition census pieces. To my surprise, cents from 1796 were rather weak. I am not sure how to explain the paltry prices realized by the cents from this year, and I will need to do some more research on this topic. Prices for Draped Bust cents (1796-1807) were generally soft, although a few exceptional pieces created a bidding frenzy. Classic Head coins (1808-1814) seemed to be in ascendancy, with strong bidding observed for all but the most common varieties.

Throughout the past year, there have been comments (verbal and written) among early copper enthusiasts, that collecting of early date cents by Sheldon variety, with the aim of completing the entire series was no longer popular. According to these theorists, a full Sheldon set had become prohibitively expensive, and younger collectors were more interested in high-grade date sets or specialized (eg. Red Book) sets of cents. The results from this auction proved that variety collecting remains very much alive. To cite just a few examples: LOT-9,  a 1793 S-12 (R6) in PCGS G-6 was hammered for $22K (more than double the estimate of $10K). LOT-23, a 1794 S-33 (R6), the famous "Wheel-spoke Reverse" in PCGS VG-8 hammered for $23K (vs. estimate of $15K). LOT-122, a 1798 S-144 (R5+) in PCGS VG-8 hammered for $7750 (vs. estimate of $5000). Finally, LOT-242, an 1801 S217 (R6+) in PCGS F-12 (and #8 in the condition census) hammered for $14,500 (the estimate was $15,000).

Easily the biggest upside surprise of this sale (for me) was provided by LOT-271. An 1807 S-274 (R2) in PCGS AU-53 with a pre-sale estimate of $6000 soared all the way to a hammer price of $46,000! I later learned that the reason for this stellar performance was competition among PCGS set registry collectors. Not far behind this surprise was LOT-222. An 1800 S-201 (R4+) graded VF-30 by PCGS with a pre-sale estimate of $2000. The hammer price for this coin was $10,500!

The biggest downside surprise in the sale was provided by LOT-216. A rare variety of 1800/79 overdate (S-195 / R5) graded EF-40 by PCGS. This coin was hammered for $3300 vs. a pre-sale estimate of $10,000! Perhaps the new owner feels good about getting a bargain. Right behind this coin on the downside was LOT-54. A 1795 Liberty Cap cent (S-76a / R5) graded EF-45 by PCGS, but with numerous rim nicks. This coin hammered for $5000 vs. an estimate of $15,000. It is interesting to note that a similar situation arose when the Paul Gerrie 1795 S76a was sold by Goldbergs in 2013.

Coming Attractions - The Tom Reynolds Large Cents !

The Goldbergs are making plans to sell the Tom Reynolds coins (Part-1) in late Jan. 2016. Based upon the early press releases, and published images of coins included in the sale, this auction promises to become one of the "whales" of early copper collection sales.
However, there is one significant difference between the Reynolds auction, and those of other legendary early copper figures like Robbie Brown, Walter Husak, Dan Holmes, and R. Tettenhorst (The Missouri Cabinet half cents): The difference involves the breadth of the collection. While the focus of the earlier legendary collectors just mentioned was BOTH completeness and quality, the Reynolds coins generally represent the single dimension of high quality.
There are certainly some rare coins in the Reynolds offering - a 1793 S-12 (R6-) is included, along with an 1801 S-217 (R6+), and a number of NC varieties from multiple years. However, it is obvious that completion in terms of all Sheldon varieties was not an aim for this collection (with the possible exception of the year 1798, which has been a particular passion for Reynolds).
With that said, there will be a lot of memorable coins in the Reynolds auction: There are at least 7 mint-state 1794 cents, and more than 30 mint-state 1798's (roughly half the PCGS population of MS coins for this date)! Many "finest-known" coins (for the variety) should bring strong bids from quality conscious buyers.
I am making plans to be "in the room" when this sale gets hammered!

The link below should provide a preview of some of the top coins in the Reynolds sale:
http://www.goldbergcoins.com/Reynolds_coins

EAC Convention 2015 - A Retrospective

The 2015 EAC convention was held from April 30 to May 2 in Dallas Tx. I was fortunate enough to attend, and enjoyed three full days talking to fellow copper collectors and looking at early copper. These annual events both strengthen the organization of Early American Coppers and reinforce the positive aspects of coin collecting for each member who attends.

Upon arriving at the hotel, I was informed that the folks from Stacks/Bowers were already set up in a 1st-floor conference room with coins from the Twin Leaf collection. The best way to begin was spending an hour browsing through this premier collection of middle-date and late-date U.S. cents. I was not disappointed - there are some fantastic coins in this collection.

Thurs. evening brought the EAC reception, which was well attended and had a great selection of tasty mini entrees. I re-connected with many old friends who seem to "appear" at this event each year. Following the reception, the half cent and large cent "Happenings" were conducted in a pair of nearby conference rooms. It took two hours to check out all the featured varieties, and swap some copper tales with fellow EAC'ers. One of the featured cent varieties, 1839 N12 had two nice coins that vied for 1st place in my mind. The variety that provoked the most discussion was 1852 N11, where numerous examples displayed cuds (or folded extra metal) at various different locations on the obverse rim. A number of experts contemplated the mystery posed by these aged disks of copper.

Friday was filled with a number of cuprous activities; the perusal of the bourse floor was very casual, since I did not have any particular coins on my "want list". The Heritage Auctions display of coins from the Eugene Exman Collection struck me as one of the nicest groups of early cents from old-line collectors seen since the Dan Holmes collection (sold in 2009). Lot viewing for the EAC auction (to be held Sat. night) was an important activity. I attended a few of the presentations in the educational forum - the discussion of the contents of the 1795 Massachusetts State House Cornerstone by John Kraljevich was memorable.

Saturday was mostly consumed with more camaraderie, along with a few swaps and sales of coins. At last, Saturday evening brought the long-anticipated EAC auction. For many members, this auction is the highlight of the convention. This year’s sale did not contain any “wonder coins”, but it was packed with collectible and affordable copper. In the early going, I was delighted when a low-grade 1793 Chain cent was hammered to me. This coin was destined to be a gift to an exceptional friend who briefly owned a chain back in 1989, but has been without one since then. Later in the sale, I outbid another buddy (and went over my budget) to buy a sharp 1839 N14 (Booby Head) cent. I have no regrets, as the pleasure of owning this beautiful coin has outlasted the pain of paying for it.

 And, just that fast, it was all over for another year! I brought home a few nice copper coins and added to my collection of good memories. Only 10 more months to wait for EAC 2016!

Directions in Copper - where from here?

The Greek Philosopher Heraclitus is credited with the famous quote "Change is the Only Constant"*
*this is loosely translated from the Greek, which has also been interpreted as "Everything changes and nothing stands still"
Things may change less rapidly in the world of coin collecting than in other human endeavors, yet change they will.

This past year has witnessed some remarkable milestones in U.S. copper coins, with important implications for those with an interest in these series:

In Jan. 2014, the sale of the Missouri Cabinet collection by Ira & Larry Goldberg established numerous price records for U.S. half cents, including the first two half cents to sell at auction for at least $1 Million. The sale was reported in this blog, and in the on-line story  below:

http://news.coinupdate.com/missouri-cabinet-half-cent-collection-auction-results-3128/
  

Just last month, not one, but two early copper coins broke through the $2 Million mark. The first of these was the fantastic 1792 Birch Cent (NGC graded MS65). The second coin, from the same Heritage auction was the finest graded 1793 Chain Cent (PCGS graded MS66). These results have been reported in the on-line story below:

http://news.coinupdate.com/birch-cent-leads-heritage-fun-auctions-4655/


In most respects, the copper coin market has been holding up very well, and is apparently thriving, along with the markets for U.S. equities and real estate in most places.
However, it is often worthwhile to look beyond the headlines, and get "beneath the surface" in order to understand the dynamics of a complex market. Not every sector of the copper market is on the upswing.
While the stellar collections and high-grade rarities have been grabbing the coin news headlines, another more insidious trend has also emerged. Prices for many rare coins in less-than-flawless condition have languished or even declined recently. What could be causing this apparent contradictory behavior? Here are a couple of thoughts:

The Quest for the Best - Nothing is particularly new about this trend. People have always tended to want the best, whether it is for their morning cup of coffee, their home, their car, or the coins in their collection. Popular coin publications even suggest that, when selecting a coin, we should aim for the "Best You Can Afford". What has changed is the intensity with which this sentiment is now pursued. Everyone cares about the "finest known" for a coin type or variety. Apparently being in 2nd place is simply being 2nd-class! The third-party grading services have aided and abetted this trend, by publishing population reports and establishing set registries, to encourage the race to the top. Uncertified coins have become "suspect", and are presumed to have problems that prevent them from being graded. Being at the "top of the pop" gives a coin the added marketing buzz needed to justify its astronomic price level. The only problem is: if everyone wants only the best, who is left to want the rest?

New Collecting Strategies - Higher coin prices are good for those selling, and also for those who already own the coins. For those who are still collecting, higher prices mean one of two things: either you will collect fewer coins, or you will collect more low-grade coins. And, since we have already mentioned the "quest for the best" trend (see above), most collectors are making the rational choice to limit the size of their collections. Most are choosing some specialty area to focus on - whether it is coins from one particular year (1794, for example), or a copper type coin set, or a collection with a special theme (coins previously owned by famous numismatists, etc.)

Most collectors of early copper are familiar with the Sheldon rarity scale. This logarithmic scale classifies the scarcity of copper coins into eight levels, running from R1 (common, >2000 known) to R8 (unique, 1-3 known). There are a number of early copper coins that have traditionally been highly revered and eagerly sought for being considered scarce (at least R5 or higher, with fewer than 75 examples known). These coins were considered "necessary" for a full collection, and they were sought in all grades for inclusion in collections. But lately, these coins have been pinched on both sides of the economic equation: On the demand side, there are fewer collectors trying to obtain a "full" set, especially a set in low grade. On the supply side, more coins have emerged on ebay and other internet sites. The net effect has been soft demand for these formerly desirable scarce varieties. This is neither good nor bad, but just "the way it is". The driving forces behind this trend do not look like short-term phenomena. This is the new reality with which copper collectors should learn to live.

A New Grading Guide for Early American Copper Coins

Finally there is a coin grading guide written by collectors of Early American Copper for collectors of Early American Copper. This recently published 192 page hard cover book describes and illustrates how to grade Confederation era Colonial coins as well as U.S. half cents and large cents, using the standards evolved by members of the Early American Coppers club.

Chapters in this new grading guide are devoted to sharpness grading for each of the various series, net grading (as practiced within EAC), specific characteristics of many die varieties, comparisons between commercial grades and EAC grades, authentication, the history of coin grading, and discussion of the many factors that can influence the price of a copper coin.

The volume is profusely illustrated with vibrant color images. It should provide both entertaining reading, and a valuable reference for any numismatic library. For more information, and the opportunity to order a copy of this grading guide, just visit the Early American Coppers web site, here:
http://www.eacs.org/GradingGuide/GradingGuide.html
 

The Sale of The Missouri Cabinet Collection of Half Cents - WOW!

The Goldbergs auctioned 228 half cents from the Missouri Cabinet in Los Angeles on Sunday Jan. 26, 2014. I was lucky enough to attend the sale, as I live about an hour's drive from the Luxe Hotel, where the sale was conducted.
Background info
This collection, easily the finest and also the first complete set of U.S. half cents ever sold at auction, was over 70 years in the making! There were two important collectors involved in building the Missouri Cabinet. First was Eric P. Newman, a renowned collector of many types of U.S. coins from the St. Louis area. Second was R. Tettenhorst, a well-known connoisseur of U.S. half cents who also resides near St. Louis. A large number of important coins in the collection were acquired directly from the estate of famed collector Colonel E.H.R. Green in the 1940's. The collaborators then meticulously added to this base set throughout the years, as opportunities arose to add new varieties, or upgrade existing coins in the set. The result of this effort was a collection whose magnitude may not be equaled again. In terms of breadth, the set was 100% complete (all known varieties of both proof and regular issue half cents). For quality, nearly every coin in the set belongs in the condition census (the census consists of the best 6 coins known for the variety). The overall quality of the Missouri Cabinet has never been rivaled.
The Sale
The Goldbergs anticipated a large event, and they wisely chose a large ballroom to conduct the auction. Their efforts paid off, as more than 100 people crowded in for this sale, but there was room for everyone, and the accommodations were very comfortable. This proved to be lucky, as the sale stretched out for more than 5 hours!
The auction started in typical fashion, and the 1793 half cents (the first 6 lots) were hammered for prices that were high, but not alarmingly high. The 1793 C-4 in PCGS MS66 (Lot 6) was hammered for $800K (vs. its pre-sale estimate of $300K). Some at the sale had expected this coin to be the first U.S. half cent to cross the $1 Million threshold, so there was a little uncertainty about the direction the sale would take when this coin fell just short of the mark. We did not have long to wait, as Lot 20 (a 1794 C-7 in PCGS MS67 R/B, and the finest-known 1794 half cent, regardless of variety) made it to a $1 Million hammer price (there was a 15% buyer's premium for all lots, making this coin worth $1.15 Million). History had been made, and we were just getting started!
As the 1794 and 1795 half cents were sold, a trend began to emerge: The highest quality coins were bringing strong prices, while the coins with any problems were being sold at prices close to the (conservative) pre-sale estimates.
The 1796 half cents in the Missouri Cabinet (Lots 36 & 37) were a magnificent pair of rare coins. The 1796 C-1 (no-pole) was a gem graded MS65 BN by PCGS. The 1796 C-2 (with pole) was an equally impressive coin, with a PCGS grade of MS65 R/B. To be honest, I considered it worth my trip to the auction, just for the chance to hold these two pieces in my own hand! It surprised a number of people when both of these coins were hammered for prices that were strong, but short of the $1 Million level. The 1796 C-1 hammered for $775K and the 1796 C-2 hammered for $625K. The new owners of these coins can feel pretty good about the value of their new additions.
As the 1797 half cents were sold, a trend emerged that lasted through all the remaining lots in the sale. Lot 41, a 1797 C-1 (1-above-1) in PCGS MS66 BN garnered a hammer price of $260K vs. the estimate of $70K. Two lots later, Lot 43, a fantastic 1797 C-2 also PCGS MS66 BN was hammered for $350K vs. the estimate of just $50K. It became clear that QUALITY was going to rule the day. Quality trumped rarity by a wide margin. One spectacular example was Lot 57; an 1803 C-3 (a rarity-2 variety) graded MS66 R/B by PCGS: This lot was estimated at $25K, but soared to a hammer price of $250K, followed by applause from the appreciative audience.
As the Missouri Cabinet draped bust coins (1800-1808) were sold, and the sale moved to the 1809 Classic Head half cents, the mood in the room shifted subtly, as those bidders who really wanted something from this world-famous collection, but had been frustrated thus far began to assert themselves. Lot 94 seemed to signal the shift. This fairly common variety (1809 C-3 / R1) was in extremely high grade (PCGS MS66 BN, with a CAC sticker of approval). The pre-sale estimate for this coin was $5000, but there were a number of bidders still vying for this coin at the $25K level, and it ultimately was hammered for $55K (11 times the estimate)! The message seemed clear: if you wanted to own a nice coin from this collection, you would have to pay dearly for it from this point forward. A short time later, Lot 102, an 1811 C-1 (a scarce variety, at R4) was bid up furiously until it was hammered down for $975K ($1.12 Million, with buyer's premium). A second half cent had crossed the $1 Million barrier, and this coin must be considered a "sleeper", since the pre-sale estimate was just $200K! The classic head half cents and the braided hair half cents brought prices that were beyond strong, in general, with those coins that earned the coveted PCGS MS66 grade finding the most interest from the bidders. It was interesting to note that bidding for the proof half cents was muted, when compared to the business-strike coins. I thought the prices paid for the proofs were strong, but they seemed consistent with the beauty, grade, and provenance of these coins. As the sale wound down to its conclusion, one lot even managed to sell for a hammer price under $1000. This was Lot 200, an 1850 C-1 that had AU details and was cleaned (according to PCGS).
Conclusions
In summary, this was the top collection of its type, and the Goldbergs showcased it with a magnificent catalogue and a perfectly executed auction. The hammer price total was $15.8 Million (I was told). The consignors crafted a collection of enduring beauty, and the bidders responded enthusiastically. Everyone had a most excellent adventure!

Here Come the Half Cents !

Half Cent collectors need to get their war-chests ready! Why? Because, next month, THE half cent collection for the ages will be sold at auction in Los Angeles by Ira & Larry Goldberg (in conjunction with McCawley & Grellman auctions). The collection, known as the "Missouri Cabinet Collection" represents a collaborative effort for more than 50 years by two prominent numismatists (R. Tettenhorst and Eric P. Newman). This half cent collection has two distinct features that assure its place in the pantheon of truly great collections:
1. It is the most complete collection of half cents ever assembled (with every known variety of business-strike and proof half cents included).
2. It has the highest overall average condition of any half cent collection sold at auction. Practically every coin in the set is included in the condition-census* for the variety (*among the top 6 finest known).
The auction of these coins is an opportunity of historic proportions for half cent aficionados and anyone who appreciates numismatic objects of the highest quality. There is a distinct possibility that attendees of this sale will witness the sale of the "First Million Dollar Half Cent". More than one coin in The Missouri Cabinet has a chance to exceed the lofty $1-million mark.